Aulien S.C.A., SICAV – SIF Global Fund Monthly management comment Macro & Politics: “Slowing growth in Europe and China / rising inflation” The “commercial war” recently initiated by the US towards its European and Chinese commercial partners continued during the month of July. Trump strate-gy is so far rather successful with Juncker being sent to Washington in order to negotiate a compromise. The Chinese relationship is still complicated but it seems like the two partners will eventually decide to strike…

Read More Read More

Aulien S.C.A., SICAV – SIF Global Fund Monthly management comment Macro & Politics: ““Slackening cycle ” We are seeing some signs of deceleration mainly in the European region. For the time being, these changes are minor but the trade war rhetorics from Trump versus China and Europe is not helping the over-all sentiment. German car makers are under pressure as well as Chi-nese techs. The US president wants some changes and it is unlikely he will back off on the…

Read More Read More

Aulien S.C.A., SICAV – SIF Global Fund Monthly management comment Macro & Politics: “People are not voting as they ‘should ” Latest Italian elections show, once again, a majority of voters against the political establishment and an ever-increasing mistrust towards Brussels. The happy few (amongst others Merkel and Macron) continue to defend their legitimacy (albeit being elected with some times less than 20 % of the nation-al votes) and more surprisingly still lectures citizens on what is right and wrong….

Read More Read More

Aulien S.C.A., SICAV – SIF Global Fund Monthly management comment Macro & Politics: “the cycle is slowing down ” Latest US figures show a milder growth slightly above 2%, still a positive figure but at least 1% lower than previous pace. The slowdown was also reflected in the latest labor number and in a lower wage inflation. The Fed, as expected did not raise rates in its latest meeting but should proceed with a 25 bp increase in June. It…

Read More Read More

Aulien S.C.A., SICAV – SIF Global Fund Monthly management comment Macro & Politics: “Increased trade tensions between China and the US.” Repeated ugly trade rhetoric from Trump has escalated stakes between China and the US and possible tariffs on a broad variety of goods and services. The US president has an habit of gesticulating during a negotiation process only to settle in a more pragmatic manner. This time around, markets are getting increasingly worried that the US administration might have…

Read More Read More

Aulien S.C.A., SICAV – SIF Global Fund Monthly management comment Macro & Politics: “What could be the consequence of the US market protectionism?” Trump decided to impose tariffs on imports of steel and aluminum mark-ing a striking reversal to multiyear liberalization of global trade. The scope of the tariffs is so far rather limited but it could become worrisome if it triggers counter measures from some business partners such as Eu-rope. The month of February was also marked by the…

Read More Read More

Aulien S.C.A., SICAV – SIF Global Fund Monthly management comment Macro & Politics: “when too good is no good ” When the 10 years yield broke above its long-term trend, Equity prices begun to wobble. Wall street showed its biggest losses for over 6 years with S&P 500 dropping 4.1 % and the Dow 4.6 % on February 5th. The characterized lukewarm environment that has lasted for almost a decade with “free” money, timid growth and no inflation seems to…

Read More Read More

Aulien S.C.A., SICAV – SIF Global Fund Monthly management comment Macro & Politics: “Everything looks (too ?) good ” The new year started where 2017 ended with a particularly strong macro outlook. Expected annual growth in the US is now close to 4% and the rest of the world is following with accelerating forecasts. Unemployment trends are also improving with Europe now below 9% and the US around 4%. The ECB has followed the Fed in tapering its massive QE…

Read More Read More

Aulien S.C.A., SICAV – SIF Global Fund Monthly management comment Macro & Politics: “Central banks standing at crucial crossroads” In a rather undramatic move, President Trump nominate Fed Board Gov-ernor Jerome Powell as Fed Chairman on November 2. The choice of Powell stands for a continuation of the status quo. Current macro figures continue to improve and will increasingly put pres-sure on central bankers to reduce the liquidity tsunami in which global markets have been living for many years. As…

Read More Read More

Aulien S.C.A., SICAV – SIF Global Fund Monthly management comment Macro & Politics: “Catalonia’s referendum spills further shadows onEurope’s democracies” As broadly anticipated Mrs. Merkel won a 4th consecutive mandate to lead the German government. Her victory was somehow overshadowed by the slamming entrance of the far-right party SPD into parliament. It is the first time since WW2 such a party is represented in the German chamber, highlighting the increased cleavage unfolding in Europe’s politics. Further political tension happened recently…

Read More Read More