Aulien S.C.A., SICAV – SIF Global Fund Monthly management comment Macro & Politics: “The next inevitable slow-down just around the corner?” The latest reported economic aggregates are showing an over board weak-ening of the current cycle. As always, it has triggered many worries and questions: is it a temporary pause before getting a second breath, what are the consequences on the central banks policies, could we face stagnation or recession combined with inflation? While the numbers are effectively cooling, they…

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Aulien S.C.A., SICAV – SIF Global Fund Monthly management comment Macro & Politics: “The good, the bad and the ugly: US mid elections, G20 meeting and the Fed ” All eyes are focused on today’s US elections. Democrats seem to have the upper hand but polls have often been wrong in the last few years. Will Trump have free hands to continue its tax cutting high deficit running policies or will the democrats hold the power to curb his plans?…

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Aulien S.C.A., SICAV – SIF Global Fund Monthly management comment Macro & Politics: “Europe facing trouble yet again” Italy’s announcement of a wider deficit has triggered tensions with the European Commission as well as potential downgrades from rating agencies. Italian vs German 10 years yield spreads has widen to ap-prox. 280 basis points with Italian yields currently at 3.3% (up 50bp in a week). Simultaneously, European leaders scorned May’s Brexit pro-posals leaving very little time to achieve any kind of…

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Aulien S.C.A., SICAV – SIF Global Fund Monthly management comment Macro & Politics: “ Trade sanctions and strong USD are hurting markets and sentiment ” The US government continues to entangle business partners and the world economy by continuously changing its stance and alternatively giving positive or negative signs. A trade agreement with Mexico gave some relief but sanc-tions on Turkey and Iran and continued tariff threats on China and the EU are keeping investors toes. Current US growth remains…

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Aulien S.C.A., SICAV – SIF Global Fund Monthly management comment Macro & Politics: “Slowing growth in Europe and China / rising inflation” The “commercial war” recently initiated by the US towards its European and Chinese commercial partners continued during the month of July. Trump strate-gy is so far rather successful with Juncker being sent to Washington in order to negotiate a compromise. The Chinese relationship is still complicated but it seems like the two partners will eventually decide to strike…

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Aulien S.C.A., SICAV – SIF Global Fund Monthly management comment Macro & Politics: ““Slackening cycle ” We are seeing some signs of deceleration mainly in the European region. For the time being, these changes are minor but the trade war rhetorics from Trump versus China and Europe is not helping the over-all sentiment. German car makers are under pressure as well as Chi-nese techs. The US president wants some changes and it is unlikely he will back off on the…

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Aulien S.C.A., SICAV – SIF Global Fund Monthly management comment Macro & Politics: “People are not voting as they ‘should ” Latest Italian elections show, once again, a majority of voters against the political establishment and an ever-increasing mistrust towards Brussels. The happy few (amongst others Merkel and Macron) continue to defend their legitimacy (albeit being elected with some times less than 20 % of the nation-al votes) and more surprisingly still lectures citizens on what is right and wrong….

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Aulien S.C.A., SICAV – SIF Global Fund Monthly management comment Macro & Politics: “the cycle is slowing down ” Latest US figures show a milder growth slightly above 2%, still a positive figure but at least 1% lower than previous pace. The slowdown was also reflected in the latest labor number and in a lower wage inflation. The Fed, as expected did not raise rates in its latest meeting but should proceed with a 25 bp increase in June. It…

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Aulien S.C.A., SICAV – SIF Global Fund Monthly management comment Macro & Politics: “Increased trade tensions between China and the US.” Repeated ugly trade rhetoric from Trump has escalated stakes between China and the US and possible tariffs on a broad variety of goods and services. The US president has an habit of gesticulating during a negotiation process only to settle in a more pragmatic manner. This time around, markets are getting increasingly worried that the US administration might have…

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Aulien S.C.A., SICAV – SIF Global Fund Monthly management comment Macro & Politics: “What could be the consequence of the US market protectionism?” Trump decided to impose tariffs on imports of steel and aluminum mark-ing a striking reversal to multiyear liberalization of global trade. The scope of the tariffs is so far rather limited but it could become worrisome if it triggers counter measures from some business partners such as Eu-rope. The month of February was also marked by the…

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