Monthly reviews

“A lie told often enough becomes the truth” – Lenin

“A lie told often enough becomes the truth” – Lenin

Aulien S.C.A., SICAV – SIF Global Fund Monthly management comment Macro & Politics: “What could be the consequence of the US market protectionism?” Trump decided to impose tariffs on imports of steel and aluminum mark-ing a striking reversal to multiyear liberalization of global trade. The scope of the tariffs is so far rather limited but it could become worrisome if it triggers counter measures from some business partners such as Eu-rope. The month of February was also marked by the…

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“The thing in the world I am most afraid of is fear” – Rabindranath Tagore

“The thing in the world I am most afraid of is fear” – Rabindranath Tagore

Aulien S.C.A., SICAV – SIF Global Fund Monthly management comment Macro & Politics: “when too good is no good ” When the 10 years yield broke above its long-term trend, Equity prices begun to wobble. Wall street showed its biggest losses for over 6 years with S&P 500 dropping 4.1 % and the Dow 4.6 % on February 5th. The characterized lukewarm environment that has lasted for almost a decade with “free” money, timid growth and no inflation seems to…

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It is no use saying “we are doing our best”, you have to succeed in doing what is necessary ” – Winston Churchill

It is no use saying “we are doing our best”, you have to succeed in doing what is necessary ” – Winston Churchill

Aulien S.C.A., SICAV – SIF Global Fund Monthly management comment Macro & Politics: “Everything looks (too ?) good ” The new year started where 2017 ended with a particularly strong macro outlook. Expected annual growth in the US is now close to 4% and the rest of the world is following with accelerating forecasts. Unemployment trends are also improving with Europe now below 9% and the US around 4%. The ECB has followed the Fed in tapering its massive QE…

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When you look into an abyss, the abyss also looks into you-Friedrich Nietzsche (1844-1900)

When you look into an abyss, the abyss also looks into you-Friedrich Nietzsche (1844-1900)

Aulien S.C.A., SICAV – SIF Global Fund Monthly management comment Macro & Politics: “Central banks standing at crucial crossroads” In a rather undramatic move, President Trump nominate Fed Board Gov-ernor Jerome Powell as Fed Chairman on November 2. The choice of Powell stands for a continuation of the status quo. Current macro figures continue to improve and will increasingly put pres-sure on central bankers to reduce the liquidity tsunami in which global markets have been living for many years. As…

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What a wonderful life I’ve had! I only wish I’d realized it sooner. – (Sidonie-Gabrielle Colette)

What a wonderful life I’ve had! I only wish I’d realized it sooner. – (Sidonie-Gabrielle Colette)

Aulien S.C.A., SICAV – SIF Global Fund Monthly management comment Macro & Politics: “Catalonia’s referendum spills further shadows onEurope’s democracies” As broadly anticipated Mrs. Merkel won a 4th consecutive mandate to lead the German government. Her victory was somehow overshadowed by the slamming entrance of the far-right party SPD into parliament. It is the first time since WW2 such a party is represented in the German chamber, highlighting the increased cleavage unfolding in Europe’s politics. Further political tension happened recently…

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The confidence of ignorance will always overcome indecision of knowledge. – Anonymous

The confidence of ignorance will always overcome indecision of knowledge. – Anonymous

Aulien S.C.A., SICAV – SIF Global Fund Monthly management comment Macro & Politics: “ “Mother Angela” set to win a fourth mandate” Mrs. Merkel participated in a very polite television debate leaving very little doubt on the outcome of the forthcoming elections in Germany. Everyone seem to welcome the longevity of her reign but one cannot avoid wondering if democracy in Europe does not deserve some renewal as well as fresh blood and thoughts. In the US, GDP growth seems…

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The liquidation of colonialism is a trend of the times which no force can hold back. – Kim Jong II (1942-2011)

The liquidation of colonialism is a trend of the times which no force can hold back. – Kim Jong II (1942-2011)

Aulien S.C.A., SICAV – SIF Global Fund Monthly management comment Macro & Politics: “Korean Rhapsody” President Trump has promised “fire and fury” in response to North Korea’s increased missile and nuclear agitation. The recent escalade between the US Goliath versus the Korean dwarf has taken its toll on recent market optimism and nibbled performance away from most stock indexes. Gold and high-quality bonds are back in business. Who knows what the outcome of this belligerent rhetoric will be but the…

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To be content with little is difficult; to be content with much is impossible. – Anonymous

To be content with little is difficult; to be content with much is impossible. – Anonymous

Aulien S.C.A., SICAV – SIF Global Fund Monthly management comment Macro & Politics: “are central banks being over confident ?” Yellen and Draghi’s recent comments were meant to be reassuring, as always. The economy is improving, inflation under control, unemployment fading, earnings improving. All seems rosy and a “normalization” of central banks policies is on its way. Nevertheless, when the EUR suddenly surged and interest rates started to climb, ECB officials were swift to say markets had misunderstood their message….

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