Monthly reviews

There was never a night or a problem that could defeat sunrise or hope – Bernard Williams

There was never a night or a problem that could defeat sunrise or hope – Bernard Williams

Aulien S.C.A., SICAV – SIF Global Fund Monthly management comment Macro & Politics: “Europe facing trouble yet again” Italy’s announcement of a wider deficit has triggered tensions with the European Commission as well as potential downgrades from rating agencies. Italian vs German 10 years yield spreads has widen to ap-prox. 280 basis points with Italian yields currently at 3.3% (up 50bp in a week). Simultaneously, European leaders scorned May’s Brexit pro-posals leaving very little time to achieve any kind of…

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And so we plow along, as the fly said to the ox – Henry Wadsworth Longfellow

And so we plow along, as the fly said to the ox – Henry Wadsworth Longfellow

Aulien S.C.A., SICAV – SIF Global Fund Monthly management comment Macro & Politics: “ Trade sanctions and strong USD are hurting markets and sentiment ” The US government continues to entangle business partners and the world economy by continuously changing its stance and alternatively giving positive or negative signs. A trade agreement with Mexico gave some relief but sanc-tions on Turkey and Iran and continued tariff threats on China and the EU are keeping investors toes. Current US growth remains…

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“I don’t want to go heaven. None of my friends are there” – Oscar Wilde

“I don’t want to go heaven. None of my friends are there” – Oscar Wilde

Aulien S.C.A., SICAV – SIF Global Fund Monthly management comment Macro & Politics: “Slowing growth in Europe and China / rising inflation” The “commercial war” recently initiated by the US towards its European and Chinese commercial partners continued during the month of July. Trump strate-gy is so far rather successful with Juncker being sent to Washington in order to negotiate a compromise. The Chinese relationship is still complicated but it seems like the two partners will eventually decide to strike…

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“The best way to make your dreams come true is to wake up. ” – Paul Valery

“The best way to make your dreams come true is to wake up. ” – Paul Valery

Aulien S.C.A., SICAV – SIF Global Fund Monthly management comment Macro & Politics: ““Slackening cycle ” We are seeing some signs of deceleration mainly in the European region. For the time being, these changes are minor but the trade war rhetorics from Trump versus China and Europe is not helping the over-all sentiment. German car makers are under pressure as well as Chi-nese techs. The US president wants some changes and it is unlikely he will back off on the…

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“Long run is misleading guide to current affairs. In the long run we are all dead.” John Maynard Keynes

“Long run is misleading guide to current affairs. In the long run we are all dead.” John Maynard Keynes

Aulien S.C.A., SICAV – SIF Global Fund Monthly management comment Macro & Politics: “People are not voting as they ‘should ” Latest Italian elections show, once again, a majority of voters against the political establishment and an ever-increasing mistrust towards Brussels. The happy few (amongst others Merkel and Macron) continue to defend their legitimacy (albeit being elected with some times less than 20 % of the nation-al votes) and more surprisingly still lectures citizens on what is right and wrong….

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Quote of the month : “ Economists have forecasted nine out of the last five recessions.” – Anonymous

Quote of the month : “ Economists have forecasted nine out of the last five recessions.” – Anonymous

Aulien S.C.A., SICAV – SIF Global Fund Monthly management comment Macro & Politics: “the cycle is slowing down ” Latest US figures show a milder growth slightly above 2%, still a positive figure but at least 1% lower than previous pace. The slowdown was also reflected in the latest labor number and in a lower wage inflation. The Fed, as expected did not raise rates in its latest meeting but should proceed with a 25 bp increase in June. It…

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I don’t want to achieve immortality through my work. I want to achieve immortality through not dying ” – Woody Allen

I don’t want to achieve immortality through my work. I want to achieve immortality through not dying ” – Woody Allen

Aulien S.C.A., SICAV – SIF Global Fund Monthly management comment Macro & Politics: “Increased trade tensions between China and the US.” Repeated ugly trade rhetoric from Trump has escalated stakes between China and the US and possible tariffs on a broad variety of goods and services. The US president has an habit of gesticulating during a negotiation process only to settle in a more pragmatic manner. This time around, markets are getting increasingly worried that the US administration might have…

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“A lie told often enough becomes the truth” – Lenin

“A lie told often enough becomes the truth” – Lenin

Aulien S.C.A., SICAV – SIF Global Fund Monthly management comment Macro & Politics: “What could be the consequence of the US market protectionism?” Trump decided to impose tariffs on imports of steel and aluminum mark-ing a striking reversal to multiyear liberalization of global trade. The scope of the tariffs is so far rather limited but it could become worrisome if it triggers counter measures from some business partners such as Eu-rope. The month of February was also marked by the…

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“The thing in the world I am most afraid of is fear” – Rabindranath Tagore

“The thing in the world I am most afraid of is fear” – Rabindranath Tagore

Aulien S.C.A., SICAV – SIF Global Fund Monthly management comment Macro & Politics: “when too good is no good ” When the 10 years yield broke above its long-term trend, Equity prices begun to wobble. Wall street showed its biggest losses for over 6 years with S&P 500 dropping 4.1 % and the Dow 4.6 % on February 5th. The characterized lukewarm environment that has lasted for almost a decade with “free” money, timid growth and no inflation seems to…

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It is no use saying “we are doing our best”, you have to succeed in doing what is necessary ” – Winston Churchill

It is no use saying “we are doing our best”, you have to succeed in doing what is necessary ” – Winston Churchill

Aulien S.C.A., SICAV – SIF Global Fund Monthly management comment Macro & Politics: “Everything looks (too ?) good ” The new year started where 2017 ended with a particularly strong macro outlook. Expected annual growth in the US is now close to 4% and the rest of the world is following with accelerating forecasts. Unemployment trends are also improving with Europe now below 9% and the US around 4%. The ECB has followed the Fed in tapering its massive QE…

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