AV MANAGEMENT S.A.

Monthly management comment Macro & Politics: “ We all wish for a brighter and happier 2021” The past year was probably one of the most challenging years of our lifetimes. Who could have predicted such a pandemic, the confinement of the world population and the complete standstill of large parts of the global economy? We now enter the new year with great hopes but still impregnated by a dismal environment. The health crises have brought into light various social and…

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Monthly management comment Macro & Politics: “Biden and Covid vaccine” As predicted, Trump lost the US presidential elections (all his legal challenges seem very unlikely to succeed) but by a very narrow margin. Republicans are in a position to maintain majority in the senate as the Blue Wave failed to conquer a clear majority. So far, this result has been considered to be ideal as allowing a moderate consensus to reign in stead of any exaggerated political bias.But the big…

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Monthly management comment Macro & Politics: “ A changing world ” Joe Biden eventually managed to win the US presidential election but it was a close race. Despite what many people wish, there were still plenty of Trump voters and the world remains quite divisive on many topics. Let’s hope that the new President will bring some reconciliation and trust in this stressed world. The good news is that a split democrat President / republican senate seems to be the…

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Monthly management comment Macro & Politics: “ Trump hit by the virus ” The persistence of the Covid-19 pandemic continues to question a swift recovery of the economy and increases concerns about the cyclicaloutlook in Q4 and in early 2021. Ironically, the virus managed to hit President Trump only a few weeks from the elections. The news broughtinstant volatility but markets managed to recover as the President seems to heal quickly. Biden continues to lead the polls and probably increased…

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Monthly management comment Macro & Politics: “ Sharpening political rhetoric ahead of US elections ” The forthcoming US presidential election will have an immense impact on how the world and the economy will evolve in the coming years. Thecurrent opposition between Republicans and Democrats has rarely been has harsh as it is today with Trump stigmatizing disagreements andbreaking many political consensuses. The tension is increasing as polls predict a tight race. Current health environment, with the persistent presence of the…

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Monthly management comment Macro & Politics: “ V-shape recovery running out of steam? ” 2nd Quarter US GDP of -30% is a rather telling figure. Of course, it was more or less expected but it does stress the incredible impact this “corona” virus has had on our economies. And apparently it is here to stay, with second and even third waves jeopardising a normalisation of the world sanitary environment. A looming US presidential election marked by deep antagonisms combined with…

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Monthly management comment Macro & Politics: “ Central banks are in control ” Recent macro-figures such as market confidence, ISM manufactural, job creations are all showing a stronger and swifter than expected rebound in the US and in Europe. Latest Chinese figures are also very encouraging. In today’s world focusing only on the good news and ignoring whatever could spoil our comfortable certainties, they are contributing to the general “feel good” mood. Breaking the Hong Kong democracy is apparently irrelevant…

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Monthly management comment Macro & Politics: “deconfinement followed by political tensions and social unrest” The Covid-19 pandemic continues to disrupt many economies but seems to have peaked in most of the western economies. Europe and the US continued to progressively lift the drastic confinement measures in order to allow the economy to restart and people to go back to work. The scope of the slow-down remains dramatic and historically unseen. The Fed Put is well in place, with the likely…

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Monthly management comment Macro & Politics: the world goes schizophrenic. The peak of the Corona pandemic seems to have been reached in most parts of the world and many countries are now slowly starting to reopen their economies. The initial obvious relief has now been replaced by many uncertainties: will a second wave follow soon? how long will the security measures have to be kept? is it really safe to go back to school, work etc? … The global mood…

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Macro & Politics: Covid-19 cracks the world economy Historical standstill.The 1st quarter of 2020 will go into history books as we currently experience things that never happened before: billions of people are confined at home, not being allowed to move or gather freely. The virus as put the world economy on shock, unemployment figures are skyrocketing and many industries are in complete standstill.The scope of the consequences is difficult to grasp, as we still don’t have a clear picture, as…

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