AV MANAGEMENT S.A.

Tumbling interest rates and manufacturing recession Bond yields continued to drop into unexplored territory, many of them in negative territory (German 10-year Bund now at -0.7%). The US yield curve is also dropping fast with a risk of an inversed bias (2-year bond at 1.55 vs 1.59 for the 10 year), usually indicating a forthcom- ing recession. Bond markets are anticipating trouble and the debate continues: will central banks save investors once again and can they keep things under control?…

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Monthly management comment Strategy & Investment Policy: Asset allocation fund The objective of the Company is to achieve for the Shareholders an optimum return by undertaking directly or indirectly investments while reducing investment risk through diversification.The Sub-Fund will predominantly invest in a diversified portfolio of equities, government and corporate bonds, commodities (through financial derivative instruments), currencies, structured products and alternative investment products.The sub-Fund will allocate a significant portion of its equity allocation into international stocks. The usual suspects have once again…

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Monthly management comment The objective of the Company is to achieve for the Shareholders an optimum return by undertaking directly or indirectly investments while reducing investment risk through diversification.The Sub-Fund will predominantly invest in a diversified portfolio of equities, government and corporate bonds, commodities (through financial derivative instruments), currencies, structured products and alternative investment products.The sub-Fund will allocate a significant portion of its equity allocation into international stocks. Markets rebounded strongly in June after a sluggish May, some of them…

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Strategy & Investment Policy: Asset allocation fund The objective of the Company is to achieve for the Shareholders an optimum return by undertaking directly or indirectly investments while reducing investment risk through diversification. The Sub-Fund will predominantly invest in a diversified portfolio of equities, government and corporate bonds, commodities (through financial derivative instruments), currencies, structured products and alternative investment products.The sub-Fund will allocate a significant portion of its equity allocation into international stocks. Monthly management comment Recent PMI data strongly…

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Monthly management comment Macro & Politics: “A slow-down but not a slump ” Recent US figures such as GDP and employment show continued strength without inflation. Europe is not as bad as some feared although Italy has entered a recession and Germany is struggling to gain steam. The endless Brexit saga is far from over but recent GBP strength show that the market seems to exclude a hard Brexit. We feel that whatever the outcome of many worrying issues is…

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Aulien S.C.A., SICAV – SIF Global Fund Monthly management comment Macro & Politics: “Trump does it again” President Trump could not help adding more trouble to a gloomy x-mas season by entering a bold power struggle on the financing of the Mexican wall. The US economy both ended the year and started the new one with a partial shut-down and quite a lot of uncertainty on how long this blockade could last. Inves-tors and public opinion seem tired of these…

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Aulien S.C.A., SICAV – SIF Global Fund Monthly management comment Macro & Politics: “The next inevitable slow-down just around the corner?” The latest reported economic aggregates are showing an over board weak-ening of the current cycle. As always, it has triggered many worries and questions: is it a temporary pause before getting a second breath, what are the consequences on the central banks policies, could we face stagnation or recession combined with inflation? While the numbers are effectively cooling, they…

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Aulien S.C.A., SICAV – SIF Global Fund Monthly management comment Macro & Politics: “The good, the bad and the ugly: US mid elections, G20 meeting and the Fed ” All eyes are focused on today’s US elections. Democrats seem to have the upper hand but polls have often been wrong in the last few years. Will Trump have free hands to continue its tax cutting high deficit running policies or will the democrats hold the power to curb his plans?…

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Aulien S.C.A., SICAV – SIF Global Fund Monthly management comment Macro & Politics: “Europe facing trouble yet again” Italy’s announcement of a wider deficit has triggered tensions with the European Commission as well as potential downgrades from rating agencies. Italian vs German 10 years yield spreads has widen to ap-prox. 280 basis points with Italian yields currently at 3.3% (up 50bp in a week). Simultaneously, European leaders scorned May’s Brexit pro-posals leaving very little time to achieve any kind of…

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Aulien S.C.A., SICAV – SIF Global Fund Monthly management comment Macro & Politics: “ Trade sanctions and strong USD are hurting markets and sentiment ” The US government continues to entangle business partners and the world economy by continuously changing its stance and alternatively giving positive or negative signs. A trade agreement with Mexico gave some relief but sanc-tions on Turkey and Iran and continued tariff threats on China and the EU are keeping investors toes. Current US growth remains…

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